Canopy Demand Report Analysis and Market Modeling Services

The vendor is required to provide canopy demand report analysis and market modeling services third-party vendor to assist in compiling, analyzing, and presenting the data in a comprehensive and policy-relevant format.
- Requirements
1. Report preparation
•    Meet with administration to review past reports and discuss data sources and planned forecasting methods. 
2. Canopy data analysis. 
•    The contractor will analyze reported flowering canopy square footage by license type (standard vs. micro) and project operational capacity and expansion forecasts for the next 12–24 months.
3. Cannabis supply and demand modeling. 
•    Evaluate cannabis production and retail sales data (pounds and dollars); use existing demand forecasts and actual market data to update supply-demand gap estimates. 
•    Supplement current market data with survey data, other research, reporting, and behavioral analysis to estimate current total cannabis demand within the state. 
•    Estimate all other sources of market demand, including illegal and illicit market sales, cannabinoid hemp, and out-of-state consumers. 
•    Estimate the additional canopy required to meet current and projected market demand.
4. Market forecasting. 
•    Model future adult-use and medical cannabis demand under multiple growth scenarios. 
•    Incorporate variables such as new licensee ramp-up timelines, tourism demand, and market maturation effects. 
•    Provide fiscal-year projections for 12-24 months.
5. Additional technical assistance.
•    Provide additional technical assistance related to survey outcomes. identify policy considerations based on findings (e.g., whether to expand or limit future canopy authorizations). 
•    Provide comparative insights from other states on regulated market capture and      illicit diversion. 
•    Make recommendations on strategies or policies the state may pursue to increase regulated market capture.  

- Contract Period/Term: 1 year